The S&P 500 added 2.5% to 7,561.67 and the Nasdaq Composite 2.3% to 25,136.27, yet the week's defining number sat elsewhere: Nvidia Corporation fell 12.8% to a $4,210.9 billion market value, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15%, up 29.0 bp. Breadth in our US coverage ran 75.9% advancers across 345 names with a median of +2.3%, so the index gain was broad and the chip leader was not part of it. The week's largest single financing event, Anthropic's listing, is still ahead of the tape: subscription books at roughly six times the offering size as of November 12, a Nasdaq debut scheduled for November 19 under the ticker ANT.
Day by day
11-09 · a 2% relief rally with a hole in the middle
S&P 500 +2.4%, Nasdaq Composite +2.7%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.1%, Russell 2000 +3.1%. Breadth was 86.1% of 440 companies above $3B, median +2.4%. The worst names were Nvidia Corporation -4.3%, Duolingo, Inc. -3.9%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited -3.7% and PDD Holdings Inc. -3.0%; the best were Coherent Corp. +16.8%, Advanced Micro Devices +13.3%, Applied Materials, Inc. +11.4% and Ferguson Enterprises Inc. +11.2%.
The equal-weight basket opened +1.0% and ended +3.0%, with a session low of -1.1% at 11:45 ET and a single 15-minute drop of -3.6% into that low, led by SpaceX -12.1%, Tesla, Inc. -9.3% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited -8.5%. Traders read the day alongside Yahoo Finance's "Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise over 2% amid oil backslide, tech comeback" and StoneX's "Fed Rate Hike Odds Near 80% Raise the Stakes for U.S. CPI Data". A close below the prior Friday's level would have falsified the relief-rally read; it did not come.
11-10 · CPI lands hot, yields go to 5%
S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq Composite -0.7%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.3%, Russell 2000 -0.7%. Breadth collapsed to 41.5% of 439 names, median -0.2%. Legend Biotech Corporation fell 16.0%, Compass, Inc. 7.4%, Trex Company, Inc. 7.3% and Bruker Corporation 6.5%; West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. rose 40.1%, Charter Communications, Inc. 10.6%, Embraer 7.0% and Rocket Lab 6.5%.
The basket opened -0.8%, bottomed at -0.9% at 12:45 ET and ended -0.2%; the largest 15-minute decline was only -0.4%, led by Micron Technology, Inc. -2.0%, SK hynix Inc. -1.8% and Nvidia Corporation -1.1%. The day's headlines set the frame: CNBC's "Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected, complicating Fed's inflation fight", CNBC's "10-year Treasury yield races back to 5% as inflation data, Waller comments drive rate hike expectations" and Reuters' "Fed's Logan calls for two more rate hikes, possibly rapidly". A close above the prior day's high would have broken the rate-shock read; the tape never approached it.
11-11 · CoreWeave carries the AI complex
S&P 500 +1.3%, Nasdaq Composite +1.6%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.9%. Breadth recovered to 64.2% of 439, median +0.4%. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. gave back 30.4%, Mirion Technologies, Inc. fell 8.1%, NetEase, Inc. 4.6% and YETI Holdings 4.4%; CoreWeave, Inc. jumped 24.7%, Micron Technology, Inc. 11.9%, Dell Technologies Inc. 11.8% and Entegris 11.3%.
The basket opened +1.5%, printed its low of +1.4% at 09:45 ET and finished +1.9%, with the worst 15-minute stretch just -0.3% around 14:00 ET. Reuters framed the session as "Stocks end higher as CoreWeave results ease AI spending worries", while Bloomberg.com ran "Stocks Slide on Nvidia Troubles, Oil Edges Lower: Markets Wrap" — two readings of the same tape. Had CoreWeave's gain failed to lift Micron and Dell, the "AI spending intact" interpretation would have been falsified on the day.
11-12 · the founder discount goes live
S&P 500 -0.3%, Nasdaq Composite -0.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.4%, Russell 2000 -1.7%. Breadth thinned to 22.8% of 439, median -0.9%. Corteva Agriscience fell 24.3%, YETI Holdings 10.5%, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. 7.4% and Alibaba Group Holding Limited 7.0%; Advanced Micro Devices rose 5.9%, Broadcom Inc. 5.5%, Arista Networks 5.1% and Valero Energy Corporation 3.1%.
The basket opened +0.7%, slid through the morning and closed at its low of -0.7%; the biggest 15-minute drop was -0.5% at the open. Yahoo Finance's "Stocks Slip on Nvidia's CEO Crisis: Stock Market Today" and MarketWatch's "The S&P 500 is shrugging off Nvidia's selloff this week" describe the same split, and Yahoo Finance also carried "Stock market has a 'worrisome' focus on Anthropic IPO, Ariel Investments' Mellody Hobson says". A Russell 2000 close above flat would have contradicted the small-cap risk-off read; it closed -1.7%.
11-13 · chips down, Dow up
S&P 500 -0.4%, Nasdaq Composite -0.9%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.1%, Russell 2000 -0.3%. Breadth was 60.3% of 436 names, median +0.3% — the index fell while the typical stock rose. Korea Electric Power Corporation lost 8.7%, Dell Technologies Inc. 7.2%, Cisco 6.2% and CoreWeave, Inc. 6.1%; Duolingo, Inc. gained 5.0%, Charter Communications, Inc. 4.3%, KB Financial Group Inc. 3.5% and TAL Education Group 3.3%.
The basket opened +0.2%, hit -1.2% at 10:15 ET and recovered to -0.4%; the sharpest 15-minute move was -0.8%, led by Micron Technology, Inc. -1.7%, SpaceX -1.7% and Alphabet Inc. -1.6%. Yahoo Finance asked "Why Is Cisco Stock Falling Today Despite Higher Quarterly Revenue and Earnings?" and ran "Intel vs AMD: which chip stock wins the AI rotation trade". A positive Nasdaq close would have falsified the rotation-out-of-hardware read; the Composite ended -0.9%.
The event window
| Index | Prior close | Week close | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | 7,561.67 | +2.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,579.43 | 25,136.27 | +2.3% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,285.73 | 52,347.55 | +2.1% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,754.11 | 2,790.49 | +1.3% |
| SSE Composite | 3,649.18 | 3,655.83 | +0.2% |
| SZSE Component | 11,175.78 | 11,197.98 | +0.2% |
| Hang Seng Index | 24,481.86 | 24,008.55 | -1.9% |
| Nikkei 225 | 57,434.77 | 60,819.36 | +5.9% |
| TAIEX | 39,701.64 | 43,091.87 | +8.5% |
| KOSPI | 5,059.69 | 5,342.73 | +5.6% |
| DAX | 25,820.36 | 26,749.95 | +3.6% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,673.90 | 10,902.56 | +2.1% |
Anthropic's roadshow produced a second amended prospectus: 825 million Class A shares, of which about 801 million new and 23.65 million existing, at an indicative $70–78, for $57.75–64.35 billion in the public offering. Alongside it sits a $26 billion private placement — Nvidia and Google $10 billion each, AMD $2.5 billion, with Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC partners participating — taking the two deals to a combined maximum of about $90.4 billion against a fully diluted valuation near $1.4 trillion. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead; listing is set for November 19 on Nasdaq under ANT. On November 12 subscription orders reached about six times the offering size and underwriters were weighing a higher range and priority for existing shareholders. The company disclosed an annualized revenue run rate of about $81 billion at October 31, up from $71 billion at end-September, against future compute procurement and leasing commitments of about $895.4 billion.
The transmission chain runs through policy and positioning before it reaches earnings. Last week's midterm outcome, with Democrats winning both the Senate and House, was followed by local votes rejecting or tightening AI data center expansion, and roughly 600,000 H200 chips remain stranded in Hong Kong with China not approving large-scale imports; the Nasdaq fell 5.2% intraday in that window, more than $3 trillion of market value was erased and Nvidia fell 8%–9%. That repricing continued this week: Nvidia's 12.8% weekly decline and the rotation into defensives and IPO beneficiaries are the visible second leg. At the top of the range the Anthropic deal would exceed SpaceX's record of about $75 billion; at $1.4 trillion it prices below some private-market expectations, a conservative anchor for AI assets that also leaves secondary-market liquidity room ahead of November 19 — a market observation, not a company statement.
What remains unknown is the allocation and the final price. A raised range would lift the gross proceeds above $64.35 billion and test whether the six-times book survives a higher clearing level; a decision to favor existing shareholders would shrink the free float and amplify the first-week print. The $895.4 billion of compute commitments is the number that will be marked against the $81 billion run rate by public investors who can now sell the stock. And the Nvidia succession — CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO, Harvey C. Jones as first chairman, a formal search under way, an independent investigation led by Joon H. Kim and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, and testimony agreed with Congress — has no timetable attached.
United States: a broad tape and a narrow leader
The S&P 500's 2.5% week covered a range from +2.4% on Monday to -0.4% on Friday, and the internals were healthier than the headline: 75.9% of 345 names advanced, median +2.3%, and the equal-weight basket finished every session within 3.6 percentage points of its open. The Dow's 2.1% gain to 52,347.55 and the Russell 2000's 1.3% to 2,790.49 both lagged the S&P, which is the signature of a market rotating rather than de-risking. Thursday's 22.8% breadth was the exception, and it came with a -1.7% small-cap session.
One stock explains the divergence. Nvidia Corporation closed at $4,210.9 billion after a 12.8% weekly fall, down about 19% from its late-October close, with media reports of a more than 30% drawdown from its October high; the board's November 8 statement confirmed Jensen Huang's resignation as president, CEO and director effective immediately and said an independent investigation had been launched into reports that he "became a target of a foreign intelligence operation", with no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised. Media reports of an extramarital affair with a subordinate executive and a suspected Chinese intelligence officer have not been judicially established. Against that, Advanced Micro Devices rose 30.3% to $278.8 billion and Broadcom Inc. 18.2% to $1,246.3 billion — the market repriced the leader, not the asset class.
Europe: the capex trade without the founder risk
The DAX added 3.6% to 26,749.95, the CAC 40 2.8% to 8,368.91, the Euro Stoxx 50 3.5% to 6,386.86, the IBEX 35 3.4% to 20,020.10 and the FTSE 100 2.1% to 10,902.56. Our European coverage showed 77.6% advancers across 245 names, median +2.0%; France was stronger still at 84.8% of 46 and median +2.6%, Germany softer at 63.8% of 47 and +1.0%. Europe bought the electrification and semiconductor-equipment side of the AI build-out while sidestepping the governance discount applied in the US.
The single name that carries the read is Siemens Energy, up 11.2% to $123.2 billion, with Infineon Technologies +9.0%, STMicroelectronics +12.0%, Prysmian Group +9.5%, Legrand S.A. +9.2% and Schneider Electric SE +6.4% alongside. The laggards were autos and defense: Stellantis N.V. -13.8% to $13.5 billion, Rheinmetall -5.8%, Porsche AG -3.5%, Volkswagen AG -3.4% and BMW AG -3.1%. A DAX close below 26,000 would have undercut the capex read; it finished 750 points above it.
Asia: Tokyo and Taipei take the hardware bid
The Nikkei 225 rose 5.9% to 60,819.36 and the TAIEX 8.5% to 43,091.87, the two strongest major benchmarks in our set. Japanese breadth was 87.6% of 97 names with a median of +6.4%; Taiwan's small sample of six was 100% advancers with a median of +9.9%. KOSPI added 5.6% to 5,342.73 and the Nifty 50 1.1% to 25,299.35. This is the equipment and materials complex responding to the same order book that lifted Applied Materials and Coherent in New York.
Resonac Holdings gained 34.4% to $18.3 billion, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo 20.7%, Toray Industries, Inc. 17.9%, DISCO Corporation 16.3% and Ebara Corporation 14.0%; in Taipei, Delta Electronics rose 17.5% to $133 billion, Chroma ATE Inc. 16.2%, YAGEO Corporation 9.9% and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. 7.3%. The losers were domestic and defensive — Japan Tobacco Inc. -5.0%, SoftBank Group Corp. -4.5%, Honda Motor Co., Ltd. -4.1% — which is what a supply-chain bid looks like when it is not a broad risk rally. A Nikkei close below 58,000 would have falsified that reading.
China: the index flat, the breadth ugly
The SSE Composite edged up 0.2% to 3,655.83 and the SZSE Component 0.2% to 11,197.98, but the ChiNext Index fell 1.6% to 2,426.08, the CSI 300 slipped 0.3% to 4,043.93, the Hang Seng Index lost 1.9% to 24,008.55 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index 2.6% to 8,056.76. Breadth tells the story the averages hide: only 18.8% of 213 mainland names advanced, median -2.8%. Hong Kong's six-name sample was 33.3% advancers, median -0.1%.
The stock that explains the move is Alibaba Group Holding Limited, down 13.8% to $218.9 billion and off 7.0% on Thursday alone; Meituan fell 13.2% to $59.6 billion, BYD Company Limited 12.3% to $88.4 billion and Kuaishou Technology 10.4%. The bid went to the hardware supply chain instead: Ruijie Networks +16.0% to $13.9 billion, Tuopu Group +13.1%, Hengli Heavy Industries +10.3%, Han's CNC +8.1%, FiberHome +8.0% and Hengtong Group +7.3%. With the 10-year Chinese government bond yield at 1.62%, up 1.0 bp on the day, down 4.0 bp on the month and down 21.0 bp on the year, the domestic rate backdrop is not the constraint; platform earnings expectations are.
Winners and losers
The week's gainers were a supply-chain list, not a platform list. Advanced Micro Devices +30.3% to $278.8 billion, CECO Environmental +24.1% to $3 billion, Broadcom Inc. +18.2% to $1,246.3 billion, Charter Communications, Inc. +17.2% to $74 billion, Rocket Lab +15.9% to $35 billion and Arista Networks +15.5% to $243.8 billion in the US; Resonac Holdings +34.4% and Delta Electronics +17.5% in Asia; Siemens Energy +11.2% and Legrand S.A. +9.2% in Europe. Every one of them sells into the build-out rather than owning its financing.
The losers split into three buckets. Governance and platform: Nvidia Corporation -12.8% to $4,210.9 billion, Alibaba Group Holding Limited -13.8%, Meituan -13.2%, BYD Company Limited -12.3%. Single-name shocks: Legend Biotech Corporation -25.2% to $4.2 billion, Corteva Agriscience -20.8% to $51.8 billion, YETI Holdings -12.3%. Cyclical and consumer: Stellantis N.V. -13.8%, Newmont Corporation -6.4% to $120.4 billion, Coupang, Inc. -6.8%, Kuaishou Technology -10.4%.
What the two groups share is a single discriminator: distance from the capex decision. Companies that book orders against Anthropic's $895.4 billion of compute commitments were bought; companies whose valuation depends on the same dollars being spent by someone else — the model owner, the platform renting capacity, the automaker absorbing battery costs — were sold. Nvidia sits on both sides of that line, which is why a 12.8% weekly fall in the largest company in the index coincided with a 2.5% index gain.
Cross-market: commodities, currencies, rates
Commodities were mostly lower and the exceptions were agricultural. Gold fell 4.7% to $3,887.60 an ounce and London gold 4.7% to $3,889.03, silver 6.4% to $48.65, platinum 3.0% to $1,492.20, aluminum 3.9% to $3,110.25 a pound and copper 1.7% to $615.25; Shanghai gold lost 3.6% to CNY 837.55 a gram. WTI slipped 1.6% to $88.92 a barrel and Brent 1.7% to $96.29, while natural gas rose 4.7% to $3.62 per MMBtu, corn 3.4% to 457.00 cents a bushel and soybeans 3.2% to 1,232.50. A 5.15% 10-year yield is the simplest explanation for a metal complex with no coupon.
Currencies priced the rate gap. USD/JPY rose 0.8% to 158.6780 and USD/EUR 0.5% to 0.8954, while USD/KRW fell 1.0% to 1,342.39, USD/TWD 0.5% to 32.9370, USD/INR 0.6% to 93.9180 and USD/CNY 0.3% to 6.6698; USD/BRL rose 1.4% to 5.5803 and USD/HKD 0.1% to 7.8443. The pattern is a dollar that strengthened against funding currencies and weakened against the manufacturing surplus countries that ran the week's equity gains.
Rates did the damage. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15%, up 29.0 bp on the week; the 2-year rose 37.0 bp to 4.88%, the 5-year 34.0 bp to 4.98%, the 30-year 21.0 bp to 5.47% and the 3-month 13.0 bp to 4.32%, leaving the 10-year minus 2-year spread at 27 bp. Abroad, the 10-year gilt yielded 5.34% (+6.0 bp on the day, -6.0 bp on the month, +76.0 bp on the year), the 10-year bund 3.39% (+6.0 bp day, -8.0 bp month, +67.0 bp year) and the 10-year JGB 2.82% as of October 30. A front-end-led bear steepening of this size is a policy repricing, and it landed in the same week as the largest equity offering on record.
What to watch: conditions, not targets
First, the Anthropic clearing price. A final range above $78 would lift gross proceeds past $64.35 billion and test the six-times book; a print at or below $70 with priority for existing shareholders would signal the issuer chose certainty over size. Watch the November 19 open against the $1.4 trillion fully diluted mark, not the offer price.
Second, Nvidia's interim leadership. Colette Kress as interim CEO and Harvey C. Jones as first chairman carry the company into a formal search while an independent committee led by Joon H. Kim and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz runs its investigation. Any guidance change at the next scheduled update, or a named permanent CEO, would reset the governance discount; silence into December keeps it in the price.
Third, the 10-year at 5.15%. A weekly close above 5.25% would confirm the front-end-led repricing is spreading along the curve; a retreat below 5.00% would mark the CPI shock as a one-week event. The 27 bp 10s2s spread is the number to watch for whether the move is policy or term premium.
Fourth, AI capex headlines from the equipment side. Applied Materials, Inc. +11.4%, Micron Technology, Inc. +11.9% on Wednesday and CoreWeave, Inc. +24.7% then -6.1% show how fast the complex reprices. Two consecutive sessions in which equipment falls alongside Nvidia would confirm demand destruction rather than a governance repricing.
Fifth, the China breadth gap. With 18.8% of 213 mainland names advancing and a median of -2.8%, the CSI 300 at 4,043.93 is holding only because of the hardware names. A CSI 300 close below 4,000 alongside a 10-year CGB yield at 1.62% would say the platform de-rating has become an index problem.
Data appendix
| Indicator | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Indices | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,561.67 | +2.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,136.27 | +2.3% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,347.55 | +2.1% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,790.49 | +1.3% |
| SSE Composite | 3,655.83 | +0.2% |
| SZSE Component | 11,197.98 | +0.2% |
| ChiNext Index | 2,426.08 | -1.6% |
| Hang Seng Index | 24,008.55 | -1.9% |
| Hang Seng China Enterprises Index | 8,056.76 | -2.6% |
| TAIEX | 43,091.87 | +8.5% |
| Nikkei 225 | 60,819.36 | +5.9% |
| DAX | 26,749.95 | +3.6% |
| CAC 40 | 8,368.91 | +2.8% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,386.86 | +3.5% |
| IBEX 35 | 20,020.10 | +3.4% |
| PSI 20 | 9,697.64 | +2.3% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,902.56 | +2.1% |
| KOSPI | 5,342.73 | +5.6% |
| Nifty 50 | 25,299.35 | +1.1% |
| Bovespa | 172,457.77 | +2.4% |
| CSI 300 | 4,043.93 | -0.3% |
| Government bonds | ||
| 3-month US Treasury yield | 4.32% | +13.0 bp (week) |
| 2-year US Treasury yield | 4.88% | +37.0 bp (week) |
| 5-year US Treasury yield | 4.98% | +34.0 bp (week) |
| 10-year US Treasury yield | 5.15% | +29.0 bp (week) |
| 30-year US Treasury yield | 5.47% | +21.0 bp (week) |
| 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread | 27 bp | — |
| 10-year UK gilt yield | 5.34% | +22.2 bp (week) |
| 10-year Japanese government bond yield | 2.82% | -5.9 bp (month) |
| 10-year German bund yield | 3.39% | +12.5 bp (week) |
| 10-year Chinese government bond yield | 1.62% | +3.0 bp (week) |
| Commodities | ||
| Gold | 3,887.60 | -4.7% |
| Silver | 48.65 | -6.4% |
| Platinum | 1,492.20 | -3.0% |
| Copper | 615.25 | -1.7% |
| Aluminum | 3,110.25 | -3.9% |
| WTI Crude | 88.92 | -1.6% |
| Brent Crude | 96.29 | -1.7% |
| Natural Gas | 3.62 | +4.7% |
| Corn | 457.00 | +3.4% |
| Wheat | 593.25 | +0.5% |
| Soybean | 1,232.50 | +3.2% |
| Coal | 152.30 | 0.0% |
| Potash | 357.50 | 0.0% |
| Zinc | 3,818.00 | 0.0% |
| Uranium | 91.55 | 0.0% |
| London Gold | 3,889.03 | -4.7% |
| Shanghai Gold | 837.55 | -3.6% |
| Currencies | ||
| USD/BRL | 5.5803 | +1.4% |
| USD/CNY | 6.6698 | -0.3% |
| USD/EUR | 0.8954 | +0.5% |
| USD/HKD | 7.8443 | +0.1% |
| USD/INR | 93.9180 | -0.6% |
| USD/JPY | 158.6780 | +0.8% |
| USD/KRW | 1,342.3900 | -1.0% |
| USD/TWD | 32.9370 | -0.5% |
Breadth figures cover our own universe of companies with market capitalisation of at least $3 billion: 345 US names, 213 mainland Chinese, 97 Japanese, 47 German, 46 French, 245 across Europe, and six each in Hong Kong and Taiwan, so the last two are indicative only. Index levels are local-currency closes from November 6 to November 13, 2026; the JGB figure is dated October 30 and is not a weekly comparison. Yield changes for non-US government bonds are shown per row with their interval labelled.
This column is research and market commentary, not investment advice. Figures are as reported in our data set for the week ended November 13, 2026; media reports cited on personnel matters have not been judicially established.